The MLS Cup playoffs are here, with the postseason getting underway on Wednesday night with the Wild Card round.
Major League Soccer’s play-in games pit the eighth- and ninth-seeded teams in each conference against one another, with the winner moving on to face the No. 1 seed in the best-of-three Round 1.
So how will things unfold out East, between the Chicago Fire and Orlando City (8:30 p.m. ET)? And who will move on in the West, with the Portland Timbers hosting Real Salt Lake (10:30 p.m. ET)? Cesar Hernandez and Joseph Lowery dive into the first of this postseason’s matchups and break down the Wild Card round.
Eastern Conference
8. Chicago Fire vs. 9. Orlando City
Star attraction: Exactly four players in MLS have registered more goal contributions this season than Philip Zinckernagel, whose 27 combined goals and assists paint him as the star to watch in Wednesday’s Wild Card showdown.
Playing in the right half-space of Gregg Berhalter’s attacking setup, the first-year MLS man is the straw that stirs the Fire’s drink. Zinckernagel thrives on the dribble, ranking in the 89th percentile in FBref‘s data for successful take-ons among his positional peers, and could be the perfect piece to glide through Orlando City’s defensive block and break into the box. While the 30-year-old wasn’t Berhalter’s splashiest signing of the summer — he isn’t even a Designated Player — no player has been more crucial in getting Chicago back to the postseason for the first time since 2017.
X-factor: It’s rare that a fullback gets named in any category with the phrase “X-factor” in it, but Alex Freeman isn’t your run-of-the-mill fullback. No, the burgeoning U.S. men’s national team regular has the capacity to take over games — and he’s shown it on repeat this season. With six goals and three assists on the year, Freeman ranks third among pure fullbacks in total goal contributions only behind Inter Miami‘s Jordi Alba and the Philadelphia Union‘s Kai Wagner.
The 21-year-old is uniquely capable as a box crasher in transition, a phase in which shorthanded Orlando will make every effort to capitalize while playing on the road on Wednesday. According to American Soccer Analysis, only 24 players at any position have registered more fast-break xG this year than Freeman. If the right back is sharp on the break and attentive defensively, Orlando’s chances of victory skyrocket.
Tactical wrinkle: Berhalter knew something had to change. After a 3-1 loss to New York City FC last month, the former USMNT manager shifted the Fire’s shape from a 4-3-3 to a 3-4-3 against Minnesota United the following weekend. Since that tactical switch? Chicago has gone undefeated through five games and become a vastly better defensive team in the process.
According to American Soccer Analysis, the Fire went from allowing 1.78 xG per game (27th in MLS) before the formation swap, to 1.58 (10th in MLS) afterward. It’s the matchup between that improved defense and Orlando City’s high-octane attack that’s racked up the third-most non-penalty xG in the league this year, as per FBref, that could prove to be the most interesting on Wednesday. Has Chicago’s weakness finally become a strength? Or will Orlando’s varied attack find a way through? — Lowery
Predictions
Western Conference
8. Portland Timbers vs. 9. Real Salt Lake
Star attraction: All eyes will be on Diego Luna. At his best, the two-time MLS All-Star who’s establishing himself as a likely World Cup call-up for the USMNT is a tenacious game-changer with his decision-making and technical build-up in the attacking third. The 22-year-old can create something out of nothing, and as seen with his nine goals this season, he’s also capable of finding the back of the net when needed.
Sure, his team and ensemble cast haven’t been brilliant in 2025, and narrowly sneaking into the postseason in ninth place with 17 losses from 34 games isn’t the sign of a promising playoff run. Nonetheless, with the pugnacious Luna as the conductor of their attacking efforts, RSL have a fighting chance. Nothing, not even a broken nose in the middle of a game, may stop him.
X-factor: A top-25 player in MLS when it comes to tackles, pass completions, and recoveries, there’s plenty to like about David Ayala, who’s able to marshal the heart of the starting XI. With plenty of stamina that allows him to roam as a defensive midfielder, the 23-year-old Argentine could be the difference-maker when needing to shut down an attacker like Luna.
If the Timbers, who don’t hold onto the ball as much as RSL, counter on those opportunities, it will probably be thanks to an intervention or some distribution from Ayala going forward. That said, there are serious questions about Portland in the final third. Out of 30 teams in MLS, the Timbers are ranked at 28th when it comes to xG (42.17) and are coming off a recent 4-0 Decision Day thrashing at the hands of San Diego FC.
Tactical wrinkle: Here’s some MLS-related trivia: Which team has the highest percentage of shots from outside of the 18-yard box? If you guessed RSL, you’re correct!
Of their 487 shots (which ranks 5th in MLS), a whopping 46% of those opportunities were launched from outside of the box. Despite ranking fifth for total shots, these chances from distance have also meant that RSL have only earned 38 goals in 34 games — which is the second-lowest tally of all playoff teams.
So what does this mean for Portland? Well, if you stay defensively compact, you may not invite too much danger from the opposition. This could inevitably lead to a tight game at home, but it may be worth it for Portland if it means a spot in the next round.
Predictions
