Close and classic encounter expected
England primed to start strong but questions over pace attack
Home pitches give Aussies clear route to victory
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Now read Ed’s Ultimate Guide to The Ashes
The Ashes
From 21 November, 00:15
TV: Live on TNT
England have the early edge
The rule of the five-Test series has always been the same: what is true at the start, is not true at the end. The exception has always been Ashes contests Down Under.
A generation has come to expect Australia dominance with the competitive heat turned down to zero. England have lost 14 of their last 15 Tests there for example, and the odd one out was a draw.
What was constant at the start of those series was that there was a chasm in ability, gumption and pugnacity. It was a fact at the end which caused consternation and soul searching in the Mother Country. Defeats in Australia have led to the ubiquitous root and branch review of the English game.
So what is true before a ball has been bowled this time around?
Well, the common perception is that these two teams are well matched in most areas. Man for man, shoulder to shoulder, England can look at their rivals square in the eye across most facets of the game, give or take a few plus and minus points on metrics such as batting averages or cumulative bowling strike rates.
The problem is, will those Englishmen still be standing come the end of a brutal schedule of five games in six weeks. And who will be staring back at them?
At the moment, Australia will be without their captain Pat Cummins and fast bowler Josh Hazlewood. Shorn of two of the elite pacers in the world, it is impossible to argue that, here and now, they are value at 4/71.57 to win the series. England are 2/13.00.
Cummins and Hazlewood may both be back in time for the pink ball Test in Brisbane, starting December 4. Or they might not.
Similarly, Ben Stokes, the England captain, has not completed a full series in Beast All-rounder Mode in three years. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood will not play in all five Tests.
It is possible that come the denouement of the series, Australia could have their strongest XI while England, exhausted physically and mentally, could succumb to the ghosts of Ashes tours past.
Classic contest in the offing
A topsy-turvy series, then, can be expected. Much like the 2-2 draw in England two years ago. It was a series which epitomised the mantra. Australia, pragmatic and granite-like, assembled a 2-0 lead. England, chaotic and aggressive, roared back and finished as the superior side.
If all key men are fit and firing, it would make sense to reckon that Australia have the edge. Test matches are won by bowling units and in this regard Australia are better. They are more experienced and potent. In black and white their first-choice four of Cummins, Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon have better cumulative averages and strike rates in the last four years than England’s best.
Much hype surrounds the potential pace that England can bring. But Archer and Wood have career strike rates of 62 and 55. Those are not top-table numbers and are dwarfed by the Aussie counterparts.
It is probably correct that there is little to choose between the batting groups. Australia have a host of players either out of form or with chinks of evidence suggesting decline. This includes Steve Smith who, for the purposes of these pages, has a shockingly-low win rate of just 11% on top first-innings bat in the last two years.
England’s bang-bang approach is well-known. They will bat with aggression bordering on recklessness at times. Early on against a weakened Australia attack, they may look capable of running away with the urn. But here’s the rub.
This series is not just a battle between the physios. It is also one of wit. And it might just be that Australia outsmarted their rivals weeks ago.
Anywhere you care to look there is great big chunks of data suggesting that Australian pitches are getting harder and harder to bat on.
- Seamers have taken a wicket every 47 balls across the last four Australia Test summers, compared to one every 61 balls in the previous four.
- The cumulative Test average in Australia has collapsed by almost eight runs in five years
- At The Gabba, Adelaide, the MCG and SCG the batting average has dipped significantly in the last five years compared to the previous five.
The reason for this is that domestic cricket has demanded more sporting surfaces. The big change has been to the infamous Kookaburra ball. This is the ball that stopped swinging after 20 overs and was like kryptonite to English seamers. It now has an extra layer of lacquer and new, bolstered and raised seam.
England’s problem, or Australia’s boon, is that the touring bowlers assembled are absolutely bang-on perfect to bowl in Australian conditions…of ten years ago. Stuart Broad and James Anderson would have lethal in this series. Where England reckoned they needed as many battering rams as possible, it may transpire they need more nuance and guile.
The value, then, is taken to rise and fall with the ebb and flow of the series. Taking big prices about the team 1-0 down after the first Test is far from mug territory. We expect these two to be engaged in a low-scoring thriller of a series.
Bowler-friendly surfaces, rapid England scoring rates and a warmer than average Aussie summer (predicted by the Aussie Met Office) make stalemates hard to imagine this early but a saver on a repeat 2-2 draw at 17/29.50 in case of a downpour at, say, Sydney seems smart.
The top-rated wagers are based on the predictability of unpredictability if you will. Fitness and form could be ephemeral for both teams and it may come down to a bit of last-gasp drama to separate the teams in another one for the ages.
That’s why splitting the stakes for 3-2 both teams is sensible. Australia are 13/27.50 and England 15/28.50. And so to another mantra that these pages state every two years: ready to burn.
