If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president for a third time, it will be one of the most dangerous moments in America’s modern history. Not only because he will then have a coin-flip chance of being commander-in-chief for another four years — four years in which he will pardon his allies, turn the government against his perceived enemies and risk tremendous damage to the nation in dozens of concrete ways — but because if he loses, he will refuse to accept defeat in waves of resistance likely to make Jan. 6, 2021, like a town meeting.
It isn’t just that Trump will not accept defeat; given everything he has said and done, it’s entirely unimaginable that he will do anything short of throwing grenade after grenade in what ought to be a peaceful transition. Especially if the election is closer than it was last time around, which polls at least at this point suggest it quite likely will be.
Making matters worse, if they could be worse, the Donald Trump who will be declaring himself president-elect regardless of the outcome could by then be a convicted felon looking at the very real likelihood of prison time — unless he’s able to assume power and pardon himself. Those higher stakes are likely to unhinge a man who is already unmoored from reality.
Trump must must must must be beaten, and the far better place to beat him than in a general election is in the Republican intramurals. Which brings us to today’s New Hampshire primary. If the last remaining GOP alternative to the demagogue and would-be dictator, Nikki Haley, can prevail, and then go on to win her home state of South Carolina, she can seriously wound the former president before he begins an unstoppable roll to renomination.
The polls suggest this outcome is unlikely. Haley has been gaining momentum since every other Trump challenger dropped out, but she remains nearly 20 points behind him according to the most recent average of state polls.
New Hampshire’s primary is partly open; the GOP ballot is open to both registered Republicans and unaffiliated, independent voters. Trump has been lying, because lying is almost the only thing he does, that registered Democrats will be voting for Haley. That’s false. Democrats can only vote in the Democratic contest, and Republicans only in the Republican contest. It’s independents who can choose, and independents who Haley is understandably and admirably working hard to woo.
Haley is not our idea of a perfect candidate. She is in many many ways inferior to Joe Biden or any other Democratic standard-bearer one can imagine.
But she is stable and sane and willing to abide by the basic constitutional order that’s served the nation well for centuries. She will not pollute the nation with a steady stream of poisonous lies and conspiracy theories. She will not divide the country up for sport, then revel in the divisions she has created. She will not be a bull in the china shop on the world stage, empowering human rights abusers and making endless decisions based on personal pique rather than the national interest.
Those are reasons enough to hope against hope that she gets traction against her very very bad opponent, and gets it now.
