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January 16, 2024 at 7:10 AM EST
Iowa and New Hampshire, the first to states to hold their nominating contests, tend to produce different winners. There are a couple of factors that help explain that pattern.
For one, the people who vote in each of these early nominating states are very different.
A majority of Iowa voters have historically been religious conservatives, more rural and more likely to consider themselves “very conservative.” Historically, about 6 in 10 Iowa Republican caucus-goers self-identify as white evangelicals or born-again Christians.
New Hampshire GOP primary voters, on the other hand, are more moderate and more likely to live in the suburbs.
The two states also vote differently, logistically speaking.
Iowa is a closed system, so only Republicans can participate. But independents are allowed to vote in New Hampshire’s semi-open primary, which helps explain its more moderate electorate.
Unaffiliated, or “undeclared,” voters make up about 40% of New Hampshire voters, so they can make a big difference.
The New Hampshire primary will take place on Tuesday, Jan. 23.
