THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
COWBOYS at GIANTS
8:20 p.m., Cowboys by 3 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: The hook stands out here in a tough game to figure. Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 7-0 since 2018, 15-2 since 2012 and 21-5 since ’09. However, the Cowboys have won 11 of the last 12 meetings and only twice in those 11 wins has the victory margin been three points or fewer. In the end, it comes down to how you feel about Daniel Jones and what should be an improved receiving corps starting with TE Darren Waller. The depth of that group could give Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka a little more wiggle room with their game plan. Enough to beat a more talented team in Dallas? Maybe not. But enough to stay within a field goal.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the over.
BILLS at JETS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Bills by 3 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We think Aaron Rodgers is going to have a very good season as he knocks the chip off his shoulder. We also think the Jets, led by their defense, can make the playoffs. We just don’t think they’re that close to the Bills. For all the hype out of Florham Park, the Bills had a very good offseason and are healthy to start the year, including Josh Allen, who injured his elbow against this team last year, and the entire secondary. Allen loves prime time and they usually come out of the gate fast. They’ll remind the Jets who rules the division. With two really good defenses, we’re also on the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
TEXANS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 10, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s the NFL equivalent of Oklahoma opening the season against Arkansas State. OK, so it won’t be 73-0 but this is still a tough debut for rookie QB C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans on the road against a team that has won five of its last six openers by an average margin of 34 points. The Texans will battle but the Ravens’ nasty secondary historically feast on QB mistakes and Stroud has no real passing weapons to lean on. Not sure if they can even get into double digit points. It’s also a good spot for Lamar Jackson to start enjoying all his new toys under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
49ERS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Niners by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: There’s no way we can lay points with the Niners in such a tough road spot. TE George Kittle could miss the game with a groin injury and DE Nick Bosa just ended a summer-long holdout. And can we expect Brock Purdy to be the same QB he was during his impressive run out of the blue at the end of last season? His surgically repaired elbow is still something of a question mark and he’s going to be under a lot of pressure. The Steelers were 8-2 with T.J. Watt in the lineup last year. He and Alex Highsmith can dominate the 49ers’ restructured O-line as Mike Tomlin tries to turn this into an old-fashioned brawl of a game, which also puts us strongly on the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
CARDINALS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Commanders by 7, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: With Kyler Murray starting the year on the PUP list, the Cardinals are without a doubt the worst team in the NFL. Newly-acquired Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune, a fifth-round rookie draft pick, will start at QB to face a fierce Washington pass rush that will see a healthy Chase Young testing rookie RT Paris Johnson. The Commanders appear ready to rise above mediocrity and there’s a freshness with Daniel Snyder out of the picture. They had a solid preseason and QB Sam Howell looked sharp in his dress rehearsal against the Ravens. A survivor pool special.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over.
BUCS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Vikings by 6, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: By the time the Bucs wear their old creamsicle uniforms in Week 6, they’ll be looking a lot like most of the bottom-feeding teams of the past. Nothing spells regression like Brady to Baker, who hasn’t proved at any of his stops that he should be a starting QB in the NFL. He has virtually no support in the run game so he’ll have to throw it and that will leave him at the mercy of a good pass rush against a suspect O-line. The Vikes have done a nice job of retooling with youth and Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson should stretch the field against a suspect secondary. Of course, the 13-4 Vikings were just 7-10-1 against the number so punters who don’t trust them see value in taking the Bucs with the points. We don’t.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
1 p.m., Falcons by 3 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: What seems like a close divisional matchup really isn’t. The Falcons have it all over the Panthers at the offensive skill positions (Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London) and with a top O-line. If Desmond Ritter makes the strides his front office expects (and he probably won’t have holdout DE Brian Burns to deal with this week), Arthur Smith’s innovative offense should make Atlanta an NFC South contender. Meanwhile, the Panthers are starting over and the rebuild isn’t likely to come in Week 1. New head coach Frank Reich was 0-4-1 both SU and ATS in his five season openers with the Colts. Bryce Young has a bright future ahead but the 17 previous QBs who went No. 1 in the draft were 5-12 SU and 3-13-1 when making their first Week 1 start.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
PACKERS at BEARS
4:25 p.m., Bears by 1, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Bears don’t have to worry about being “owned” by Aaron Rodgers but he wasn’t the only reason they could never beat the Packers (eight straight defeats, 13 of the last 14). Jordan Love can lean on the run game and take his shots down field. We’re not buying all the Justin Fields hype, who has thrown six INTs against just three TDs vs. Green Bay. Speaking of Rodgers, the locker room vibe should be a lot better without his prima donna act. Look for the Packers to make an immediate statement that they can do without him.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over.
TITANS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Saints by 3, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: Mike Vrabel loves the underdog role and we love his coaching matchup against Dennis Allen. The Titans’ defense returns healthy after last year’s mountain of injury issues and should hold in check Derek Carr, who, with Alvin Kamara serving a suspension, doesn’t have many weapons outside of Chris Olave. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins are talking about prove-it years and the Saints defense won’t scare them. Together with a healthy-again Ryan Tannehill, they will exploit a mediocre Saints D.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the over.
EAGLES at PATRIOTS
4:25 p.m., Eagles by 3 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Can’t see why this line keeps getting lower, which is why all the betting red flags say Pats in a trap game. Maybe bettors are thinking the Eagles will take a step back and that Bill Belichick still has magic left. But to stay in this game, with his limited offense, Coach Hoodie is going to have to turn it into an ugly defensive battle. Usually his defensive front is good enough to make that happen but not this offensive line and not against a mobile QB like Jalen Hurts. The Eagles have team speed everywhere. The Pats don’t.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BENGALS at BROWNS
1 p.m., Bengals by 2 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: The extent of Joe Burrow’s calf injury is unknown but either way, he hasn’t had much success against his upstate rivals, going 1-4 SU while throwing five INTs in those games. Cincy is usually a slow starter and the Browns have had an entire preseason for Deshaun Watson to work his way into the offense. They’ve got talent if Watson can return to his old form. That’s a big if, of course. Betting the Browns is always a risky proposition so while we lean to Cleveland, it’s a teetering lean.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Browns and the over.
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BEST OF THE REST
RAMS at SEAHAWKS
4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 5 ½, 45
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
DOLPHINS at CHARGERS
4:25 p.m., Chargers by 3, 51
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.
JAGUARS at COLTS
1 p.m., Jags by 4 ½, 45
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the under.
RAIDERS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Broncos by 4, 44
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Packers. Fields in their dreams.
