Chris Hondros
Stock index futures were mixed Friday and yields jumped after the March jobs report showed a gain in jobs close to market forecasts.
S&P futures (SPX) +0.2%, Dow futures (INDU) +0.2% turned green and Nasdaq futures (NDX:IND) -0.1% slipped.
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose 7 basis point to 3.36% and the 2-year yield (US2Y) rose 13 basis points to 3.95%.
March nonfarm payrolls rose 236K vs. forecasts of 230-240K. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5% with a rise in the participation rate to 62.8%.
After a week of soft data on the labor market this bond market was clearly leaning to a lower payrolls number than the consensus and yields on the short end are now bouncing back.
Fed funds futures priced in a 56% chance the Fed hikes in May. They priced in a 54% chance of a hike of 25 basis points before the numbers came out.
“Few #payrolls takeaways 1) Labor markets remain insulated for moment +236K headline on top of consensus 2) Private sector a bit weak and public a bit strong—not great, but likely noise 3) Urate down and participation up as household survey closing long gap w/establishment,” Janney’s Guy LeBas tweeted.
“Wages continue to slow down,” Indeed economist Nick Bunker tweeted. “Wage growth is now running at 3.2% on a three-month annualized bias. Production workers running at 4.”
Wall Street will be closed for regular stock trading for Good Friday, along with major bourses in Europe. But since that is not a U.S. federal holiday, payrolls are out as usual Stock index futures on the CME will trade until 9:15 AM ET. Bond market trading will also be curtailed with a recommended closing at noon ET (it would normally be closed were it not for today’s data).
The S&P 500 (SP500) snapped a three-week winning streak in this holiday-shortened week.
