The Yankees’ offseason has gotten off to a fiery start after general manager Brian Cashman cursed his way through a defense of his front office operation on Tuesday at the general manager meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz.
In the midst of Cashman’s argumentative media scrum, the 56-year-old mentioned that the Yanks would be in the market for two outfielders, preferably left-handed hitters. There is one free-agent All-Star who fits the bill Cashman described who just enjoyed a resurgent 2023 season with the Chicago Cubs.
Cody Bellinger put the baseball world on notice last season after three years of subpar performance. The 2019 NL MVP slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers and 97 RBI after inking a one-year prove-it deal with the Cubs in December of 2022.
The 28-year-old can play solid defense in the outfield and is an impact bat from the left side, exactly what the Yankees are looking for, however, there’s just one problem:
He’s not Juan Soto.
Signing Bellinger to a lucrative free-agent contract would likely take them out of the running for Soto — based on the way they’ve done business in recent years — making the same exact mistake they made in 2017.
Despite Bryce Harper’s looming free agency after the 2018 season and being the perfect fit for the Yanks, Cashman and company brought in a different outfielder who had a tremendous 2017 in Giancarlo Stanton.
Acquiring Stanton and his huge contract from the Miami Marlins in December of 2017 was cited as a reason for not being in the Harper sweepstakes a year later — a decision they are still reaping the consequences of entering this offseason.
In this scenario, Bellinger is Stanton and Soto is Harper. Signing the 28-year-old Bellinger may be even more enticing than acquiring Stanton was in 2017 due to the colossal disappointment that was the 2023 season. And time is not exactly on the Bombers’ side with Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole already in their early 30s. The window of opportunity to win with this group is closing by the day as the urgency to win and make impact moves is at its peak after an 82-win season.
However, patience will likely be rewarded — as it seemed it would’ve been in 2017 — with the Padres’ megastar set to hit the open market after the 2024 season. There have been plenty of rumors swirling regarding Soto’s availability via trade this offseason, however, agent Scott Boras and Padres’ GM AJ Preller seemingly shut down those rumors on Wednesday.
The 24-year-old Soto is the perfect fit for the Yankees as the left-handed hitting outfielder slashed .275/.410/.519 with 35 homers and 109 RBI last season. Not only would Soto significantly boost the Yanks’ immediate World Series chances, it would crack wide-open another window of contention due to his youth surrounded by youngsters Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Jasson Dominguez.
Soto is the slam-dunk acquisition, if he isn’t available now, try again in July — should the Padres be out of contention again after significantly underperforming in 2023 going 82-80 — where his trade value would be significantly diminished having just a half-year left on his contract.
If he isn’t available in July, then back up the Brinks trucks in December.
What the Yanks can’t afford to do is compromise their ability to land another generational talent based on a one-year re-emergence in Bellinger — who also has plenty of red flags himself.
Bellinger’s underlying numbers indicate he enjoyed some good luck last season. The outfielder ranked in the 10th percentile in Hard-Hit%, 27th percentile in Barrel% and 22nd percentile in average exit velocity. In simpler terms, he was hitting the hard at a league-low rate but still enjoyed successful standard numbers.
The outfielder also took a three-season hiatus as his OPS from 2020-2022 were .789, .542 and .645. Taking long-term, high-dollar risks isn’t a business the Yankees should be operating in — as the outfielder could command as much as $200 million with Boras as his agent — they need a sure thing, and nothing is more sure than Soto who they may have be a bit patient with regarding his availability.
Should they forgo signing Bellinger and decide to wait on Soto, options to fill those two outfield spots aren’t impactful on an All-Star level, however, they could fill the void for the time being.
Free agent outfielder Kevin Kiermaier (.741 OPS in 129 games with the Blue Jays last season) and potential Cardinals trade candidates Dylan Carlson (.651 OPS) and Brandon Donovan (.787 OPS) are names to watch throughout the winter.
If the Yankees front office wants to prove after a dismal season that they are indeed “pretty f–king good,” prioritizing landing Soto in pinstripes — at some point — would be a great start.
