Ireland and Scotland eye World Cup knock-out blow

Knock-out rugby comes early for Ireland and Scotland with one of the world’s top five nations exiting the Rugby World Cup come Saturday’s final whistle in Paris.

Only a Scotland win by an unlikely 21 points or more, with Ireland collecting a single losing bonus point, would take both sides through at the expense of holders South Africa.

Amid questions about conspiracy theories and possible collusion, Springboks head coach Jacques Nienaber expressed hope there would be no “match-fixing”.

But to even win, never mind deliver Ireland a crushing defeat, Scotland will have to end an eight-match losing streak against their rivals stretching back to 2017.

Indeed, the Irish have dominated the fixture across the past decade, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings, including a 27-3 pool-stage success at the last World Cup and a 22-7 triumph en route to winning the Six Nations Grand Slam earlier this year.

The last time Scotland registered a victory over the Irish that would be sufficient for progression this weekend was way back in 2007 – a 31-21 warm-up win ahead of the last World Cup to be staged in France.

Scotland, currently ranked fifth in the world, have efficiently dismissed Tonga and Romania since losing to South Africa but will likely have to improve on that showing against the world number two side if they are to end 16-game winning run established by the current world’s best.

Waiting in the quarter-finals for the two Pool B qualifiers are New Zealand and, most likely, France should they defeat Italy on Friday.

Team news

Iain Henderson starts at lock for Ireland, with James Ryan, who has been affected by a hand injury, dropping to the bench.

Dan Sheehan takes over from Ronan Kelleher at hooker in the only other change from the win over the Springboks, while flanker Peter O’Mahony will earn his 100th cap.

Only three players retain their places from the Scotland side that thrashed Romania 84-0 – a match that head coach Gregor Townsend used to give fringe players a chance to impress.

Ali Price is one of those and replaces Ben White at scrum-half, with the latter omitted from the 23-man squad as George Horne is preferred as the replacement on a bench containing six forwards.

Captain Jamie Ritchie returns after going off with concussion in the first half of the win over Tonga a fortnight ago, while full-back Blair Kinghorn will earn his 50th cap.

View from the Ireland camp

Ireland wing James Lowe: “Obviously it does give us confidence in what we’ve done over the last three to four years in terms of what we’ve built. Invincible? I wouldn’t go anywhere near that word. Complacency is something that can’t creep into this group as well and it doesn’t.

“We understand the serious threats and we’ve respected every opposition that we’ve played so far in this competition. Scotland are an amazing team who have definitely pushed us. We’re looking forward to the challenge.”

View from the Scotland camp

Scotland lock Grant Gilchrist: “This is as big a moment as you’ll get in your career. It’s all or nothing for us. It’s a hugely exciting challenge, the stuff of dreams for players to go out in an arena like this with everything on the line, having had the journey we have had to this point.

“It’s about bringing that emotion, don’t be scared of it. We’re going to embrace it. We’re going to put absolutely everything we have got into the game and we believe that’s going to be enough to win.”

“This Scotland team has done things that other Scotland teams haven’t done. We know beating Ireland on a big stage is something we have not done, but that’s what excites us.”

Line-ups

Ireland: Keenan; M Hansen, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton (capt), Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong; Beirne, Henderson; O’Mahony, Van der Flier, Doris.

Replacements: Kelleher, Kilcoyne, Bealham, Ryan, Conan, Murray, Crowley, McCloskey.

Scotland: Kinghorn; Graham, Jones, Tuipulotu, Van der Merwe; Russell, Price; Schoeman, Turner, Fagerson, Gray, Gilchrist, Ritchie (capt), Darge, Dempsey.

Replacements: Ashman, Sutherland, Nel, Cummings, M Fagerson, Crosbie, Horne, Smith.

Match officials

Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)

Assistants: Wayne Barnes (England), Jordan Way (Australia).

TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia).

Match facts

Head-to-head

• Ireland have beaten Scotland in their latest eight meetings
• Ireland have won 12 of the last 13 meetings, including a 27-3
• Ireland beat Scotland 27-3 in the pool stage at the last World Cup
• Scotland have only managed a margin of victory of eight points or more twice in their last 30 games against Ireland

Ireland

• Ireland are ranking number on in the world
• Ireland have won 16 matches in a row

Scotland

• Scotland are ranked fifth in the world
• Scotland have never beaten the top ranked side in the world